Burcu Gultekin Punsmann
Foreign policy analyst
Turkey
Online press conference with Burcu Gultekin Punsmann, senior researcher at Ankara Policy Center (Turkey).
Topic: The escalation of relations between Turkey and Russia, perceptions in Turkey. What are the opinions on this case and what development are expected. Iranian and other regional developments?
Tatevik Ghazaryan, www.news.am
Question - From your point of view, what will be outcome of recent tension between Russia and Turkey? Will it lead to further escalation or even war taking into consideration the policy of mutual sanctions?
Answer - Wat will happen next in Syria will be decisive. The Turkish-Russian crisis is not anymore a bilateral crisis. We can expect a serious military escalation on the Turkish-Russian borderland if Russia continues its air campaign on Aleppo which will increase the influx of refugees towards Turkish borders. You said ‘mutual sanctions’, Turkey hasn’t retaliated; we talked a bit about imposing visas for Russians. Nothing more significant.
Question - How do you see the future of planned projects in the sphere of energy between Moscow and Ankara, in particular "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline project? Will it be implemented?
Answer - I don’t think that the Turkish Stream has ever been a serious business project. It came on the agenda as an anti-Ukrainian initiative and as a gesture towards Turkey (thus the name…) I am wondering whether Gazprom could have found enough money to move forward with it. The most important project is the Akkuyu nuclear plant. And no one has even uttered a word about Akkuyu in the climax of the crisis. Of course there is so much interest at stake, and Russia has made already a big investment. Personally I wouldn’t be upset to see the Akkuyu project cancelled, I am not convinced whether Turkey needs nuclear energy at all and especially power plants built with Russian technology.
Question - What is the role of the United States in the Turkish-Russian tension?
Answer - Not much. Please understand that ‘Syria’ is not just a regional crisis as for instance the Ukrainian crisis or even the Nagorno-Karabakh could be perceived from Turkey. Russia’s military involvement in Syria has a direct impact on Turkey. As a matter of fact today NATO is seriously mobilized on the Turkish-Syrian border.
Newspaper “Hetq”, www.hetq.am
Question - What is the perception of Turkey's anti-terroristic activities? How important is the Islamic State among the current threats to the security of Turkey?
Answer - Turkey is at war against all terrorist groups. This official statement is pretty much true. The fight against ISIS is not always under the media spotlight as the struggle against the PKK is. That is understandable since Turkey is losing a few soldiers almost on a daily basis on its soil as a result of the actions of the PKK. The minister of interior announced last week that more than 3000 persons were detained and almost a thousand arrested in the context of the fight against ISIS and almost some 3000 foreigners expelled. I believe that many terrorist attacks are being prevented. It is good that the operations remain invisible…I doubt whether heavily armed military personal that we see in a big European cities can be of much efficiency in the fight against terrorism. I am happy to see that Syrians nationals who found shelter in Turkey are not stigmatized in the context of the struggle against ISIS.
Question – What is the solution of Syrian conflict in terms of Turkey's interests? What alternative approaches do exist to this issue in Turkey?
Answer - The most important is that the war stops, that the border be secured and the conditions allowing the voluntary return of some of the refugees be realized. That is what matters. The government is not communicated clearly enough at this level. Syria where the Arab Sunni (and Turkmen) populations would be emptied out or massed on Turkish borderlands and living on almost entirely at Turkish expenses is of course not acceptable.
Question – Is there any reason to believe that the current aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations has a temporary nature, and what exactly in your opinion can ease this tension?
Answer - What will happen next in Syria will be decisive. The Turkish-Russian crisis is not anymore a bilateral crisis. We can expect a serious military escalation on the Turkish-Russian borderland if Russia continues its air campaign on Aleppo and will increase the influx of refugees towards Turkish borders. The tensions can only ease if Russia stops its military campaign in Syria. Is up to Russia whether or not to open a direct channel of communication with Turkey. The ending of the sanctions would have a positive effect in terms of public diplomacy inside Turkey. However you will not see any negative attitude towards Russians in Turkey. The Turkish population in general likes quite much Russians, and don’t forget that we have now a young adult Turkish-Russian generation!
Tigranuhi Martirosyan, www.tert.am
Question – After the destruction of Russian military aircraft a number of economic sanctions are applied on Turkey, which cause serious damages to the Turkish economy. What do Turkey wanted to achieve with this step after all? What were the unmet expectations of Turkish authorities?
Answer - Please understand that ‘Syria’ is not just a regional crisis as for instance the Ukrainian crisis or even the Nagorno-Karabakh could be perceived. Russia’s military involvement in Syria has a direct impact in Turkey. The most important for Turkey is that the war in Syria stops and that the border be secured and the conditions allowing the return of some of the refugees be realized. Russian military involvement in Syria just makes the situation worse. Yes, the economic sanctions had an economic cost on the sectoral level. However Turkey’s overall trade volume is big and its economy very open, it has many trade partners. That’s makes the private very flexible. For instance Antalya business community is now very happy because of the booming economic relations with Israel.
Question – Are the Turkish-Russian relations irreversible? Or Turkish authorities, experts see the perspective in the normalization of these relations, what is the prospective?
Answer – Of course yes. I think that the Turkish diplomacy will become increasingly pragmatic. Russia should consider the cost of having lost their direct channel of communication with Turkey on regional issues. Turkey also loses of the margin of manoeuver.
Artak Barseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia, www.armradio.am
Question - Mrs. Gultekin in your opinion, how much the current aggravation of Russian - Turkish relations is related to the ambitions of President of Turkey Erdogan to strengthen regional influence following the example of the Ottoman Empire?
Answer – Can we accuse of imperialism a state that is protecting its airspace and has become a world first refugee host country? The Syrian population in Turkey will soon equal the population of Armenia.
Question - Functionally, how much is the political tandem of Ankara and Baku legally competent?
Answer – I don’t understand what you mean by legally competent. What I can say is that the bilateral relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan got consolidated as a result of the crisis with Russia.
Question - In the context of nationalist sentiments in the Turkish authorities, the principle "0 problems with neighbors" irrevocably became a history of the declarative policy of Ankara. Under what circumstances the Turkish authorities will be able to normalize relations with Armenia without preconditions?
Answer – Turkish-Armenian normalization could have been the best success story of Davutoglu’s zero problem with neighbor approach. This approach could have made sense only if it included a confidence building dimension. It failed mainly as the result of the very normative policy that Turkey adopted in the context of the Arab spring. Democratization attempts should be not the drivers of external action, that applies to the US, the EU and Turkey.
Armen Minasyan, www.panorama.am
Question - In your opinion how far the aggravation of Russian - Turkish relations could go? Do you consider the simple armed conflict possible?
Answer – What will happen next in Syria will be decisive. The Turkish-Russian crisis is not anymore a bilateral crisis. We can expect a serious military escalation on the Turkish-Russian borderland if Russia continues its air campaign on Aleppo and will increase the influx of refugees towards Turkish borders. As a matter of fact today NATO is seriously mobilized on the Turkish-Syrian border. We can expect a serious escalation of tensions between NATO and Russia and possibly a diplomatic breakthrough.
Question - To what extent is truthful the accusation on smuggling oil imports to Turkey from ISIS. Are the relatives of Erdogan really involved in this affair?
Answer - Not relevant. I spent a year in 2014 (before the ISIS focused reading of the Syrian crisis) in Antakya working within an international humanitarian mission. I saw how authorities were fighting against smugglers. These are very micro level activities, and the border management capabilities developed considerably since this period. I heard recently that the smuggling of Viagra pills has become a very profitable business across the Turkish-Syrian borders!
Question - Turkey opposes inter-Syrian dialogue to the direct participation of the Kurds, accusing them in terrorism. According to you, without involvement of Kurds is any solution possible in Syria.
Answer – Apparently Russia also was against YPG’s participation in the Geneva talks. And at this stage there is nothing much to be negotiated in Geneva. Yes Kurds should have a word to say about the future of Syria. They would benefit from good relations with Turkey. Not long ago their leader was received at an official level in Ankara. Look at KRG. KRG is currently Turkey’s 3rd export market just after Germany and UK, and might perhaps become independent…Barzani is a very wise leader.
Question - How do you think the tension in Russian-Turkish relations will influence the situation in South Caucasus?
Answer – For the time being the impact is minimal. I would say that both Georgia and Azerbaijan have been acting very wisely. It is important to have the east-west connection, it has become for the first time a commercial route. It is important that Turkey continues to see Armenia as an independent country. It is very important that Turkey is still be able to consider Armenia as an independent country and that Armenia isolates its issues with Turkey from the dynamics of Turkish-Russian crisis. Armenians should keep a direct channel with people from Turkey and not let themselves be too much affected by Russian and to some extend Kurdish communication about Turkey.
David Stepanyan, www.arminfo.am
Question - Destruction of Russian military aircraft by the Turkish Air Defense did not come from that observed logic of the recent Russian - Turkish relations. What could be the real reason for such a dramatic reversal of Turkish politics and what will be the consequences of the growth of escalation in relations between Ankara and Moscow?
Answer – Please understand that ‘Syria’ is not just a regional crisis as for instance the Ukrainian crisis or even the Nagorno-Karabakh could be perceived. Russia’s military involvement in Syria has a direct impact in Turkey. Turkey and Russia could prevent regional crisis (NK, Crimea and Ukraine) spill over their bilateral relations. Russia seems to have chosen to sacrifice their bilateral channel with Turkey. Both sides should have moved more cautiously, Russia could have taken into Turkish sensitivities in Syria, on Turkish-Syrian borderland. I guess keeping good relations with Turkey should have been more important than the few more kms that Assad’s regime would take back or not. The Turkish-Russian crisis is not anymore a bilateral crisis.
Question - The ban imposed by Ankara on sightseeing flights of the Russian Air Forces over its territory, provided by the relevant international agreement, by Moscow estimations creates a dangerous precedent to the uncontrolled military activity. In your opinion, what are the objectives of Turkey’s authority, taking such a decision?
Answer – I don’t understand the question. Why should a NATO country allow Russian military intelligence operations over its territory?
Question - On February 4, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in fact has promised to recall the downed plane by Turkey, once again accusing Ankara of aiding and abetting the international terrorism. Does Moscow has real levers of influence on Ankara and, in your opinion, is Armenia one of from these levers?
Answer – No, Russia doesn’t have much leverage. “Weaponizing” energy has never been considered. I heard recently that some 20% of Gazprom incomes was coming from Turkey. Russia will face NATO if they threaten military Turkey. I don’t see how Armenia could be a leverage…since Turkey doesn’t have relations with Armenia. Armenian leaders should not let themselves too much affected by Russian anti-Turkey discourse.
Question - After the collapse of the proclaimed policy ”zero problems with neighbours" by Ahmet Davutoğlu, Ankara's policy in relation to these mentioned neighbours hardly speaks of their desire to settle this problems. The Turkish invasion to Syria and Iraq is a vivid example of that. Where such an aggressive policy can lead Turkey and how is this policy justified, in your opinion?
Answer - Can we accuse of imperialism a state that is protecting its airspace and has become a world first refugee host country? The Syrian population in Turkey will soon equal the population of Armenia. I would say that both Syria and Iraq should be more pre-occupied in the mid-term of Russian and Iranian soldiers active on their soil.
Question - Turkey actively participates in the creation of a military bloc with the participation of Georgia and Azerbaijan. Against whom could such a union be directed besides Armenia and its strategic partner Russia and what is its real purpose?
Answer – We can hardly speak of a military bloc. There is military cooperation between Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan which specifically aims at protecting the east-west corridors (pipeline, road and soon railroad), these infrastructures proved all the more important in the context of Russian sanctions against Georgia and more recently against Turkey. And of course the connection helps both Georgia and Azerbaijan to raise their profile and to be given more consideration by Russia. Armenia is not a threat for Turkey, and even if such Turkey wouldn’t have needed Azerbaijani and Georgian’s support to counter Armenia…
Question - On February 3 the European Union approved the allocation of financial assistance to Turkey in the amount of € 3 billion to combat the migration crisis. Some analysts believe that Turkey deliberately promotes the formation and strengthening of the flow of migrants to Europe, especially in Greece. Do you agree with this formulation of the problem and if so, what are the objectives pursued such a policy?
Answer – No, I don’t. I can have a very micro-level analysis on the Syrian refugee crisis. I spent a whole year in Antakya working within an international humanitarian mission. Turkey is as of today the second country in the world with highest number of Syrian nationals. The total number of Syrians in Turkey will soon equal to the population of Armenia. The EU finally realized that they cannot isolated themselves from the effects of the upheavals in the Middle East or the Caucasus. Turkey is not a buffer.
Eduard Mkhitaryan, www.galatv.am
Question - During Turkish-Kurdish clashes in Cizre, Diyarbakır, Çorum and other Kurdish-populated areas some Turkish law enforcement agencies make some provocations. In particular, writing some offensive words about Armenians on house, store walls, even addressing the rebellious citizens, as an insult, Armenians by loudspeakers. What do you think about this phenomenon, and don’t you think it was directed by some of the authorities.
Answer – I saw it. These pictures circulated on youtube but not in national media. This is just stupid. If I recall well, the voice at the loudspeaker was shouting ‘you are all Armenians!’ was there any insult word? The purpose was to ostracize, why not to say in this case ‘you are all Kurds!’ (which is by the way what the other side is trying to say!). Well, there is the acknowledgement that these people are not Turks at least…sorry for being ironical.
Question - What impact could the deterioration of Russian-Turkish relations have on already complex Turkish-Armenian inter-relations, and how could it be settled if the Turkish side, in any political case, supports the position of Azerbaijan in diplomatic circles.
Answer – Yes the Azerbaijani linkage has got consolidated. Azerbaijan has handled very successfully its relations with Turkey and Russia in the context of the crisis. Without antagonizing Russia, Azerbaijan gave all the warrantees to Turkey. We saw very clearly the importance of having this east-west corridor, that Turkey can reach Central Asia via the Caucasus is one aspect. What is also important is that Georgia and Azerbaijan can reach out to the outside world through Turkey in the context of a highly polarized confrontation, a new Cold War. I saw how terrible it was that the Turkish-Armenia border has remained closed. It is very important that Turkey is still be able to consider Armenia as an independent country and that Armenia isolates its issues with Turkey from the dynamics of Turkish-Russian crisis. Armenians should keep a direct channel with people from Turkey and not let themselves be too much affected by Russian and to some extend Kurdish communication about Turkey.
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