Russia and the South Caucasus: Agendas, Priorities and Realities - 2019: Page 8 of 9

it, an agreement has been reached on joint exercises, which is of positive significance.

Hikmet Haji-zade - Russia has so thoroughly infiltrated into the region that its relations with the West, Turkey and Iran turn out to be in no way affected by its policy in the South Caucasus.

Russian-Turkish rapprochement is tactical in nature and does not yet affect the behavior of the Russian Federation in our region. Turkey’s procurement of Russian weapons is something like "I’ll marry the bald man to make my beloved jealous." However, if Erdogan remains in power and continues the policy of distancing from the West, it is not known how far his relationship with the Kremlin can go. However, I am sure that, no matter how things turn out, this cooperation will not be able to influence the behavior of the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus. The concerns in Armenian society that Russia will again sell the Armenian interests to Turkey (say Karabakh) are exaggerated.

The Iranian crisis is especially actively discussed in Azerbaijan, where a significant part of the society is concerned about the fate of 30 million South (Iranian) Azerbaijani population. What if Iran begins to fall apart, and a larger Azerbaijan appears. This could happen very easily. In addition, with the exception of a small religious segment, the Azerbaijani society would be glad if the Islamic regime in Iran collapsed and Iran turned into a kind of neutral, peace-loving, and possibly democratic state, and thus ceased to pose a fundamental threat to the secular way of life in Azerbaijan.

Certainly, with the collapse of Iran, significant negative phenomena can also emerge - refugees, the rupture of trade and other ties. But in Azerbaijan these are all seen as possible temporary problems. As the saying goes, "A terrible end is better than horror without an end." The same thing can happen with Armenia and Georgia in connection with the possible collapse of the mullah regime in Iran. It will be difficult at first, but then it will become better. As for the situation in the South Caucasus after the emergence of a larger Azerbaijan, this is a major topic and needs to be considered separately.

Anush Sedrakyan - Mr. Hikmet Haji-zade, the collapse of Iran is unlikely, even in the most distant historical perspective. Iran is accustomed to isolationist politics, this country has enough resources for autonomous survival.

Russia has firmly established itself in the South Caucasus, not only because the Caucasus has traditionally been in the sphere of its interests, but also because the South Caucasus is practically the last outpost for Russia. After the actual loss of influence in Central Asia, the rejection of Ukraine, Moscow will use all levers of influence to maintain its position, so that further shocks await us.
...The Kremlin, torn by contradictions, demonstrates the miracles of sudden turns in geopolitics and internal governance, so I believe that the benchmark for supporting the Western establishment is much more predictable.

Andrey Areshev - The statement that "... do not influence in any way" seems to be overly