“The Role of External Factors in the Karabakh Process - 2018: Mediators, Regional Actors and International Organizations”: Page 7 of 8

possibilities for imposing an effective resolution scheme onto the parties. It seems all the participants of this discussion are more or less unanimous on this point.

Vyacheslav Mamedov - The presidents cannot sign any agreements, without public consensus in Armenia and Azerbaijan over at least the initial and most basic principles of the resolution of the Karabkh conflict. Otherwise, the societies will react with mass protests and unrests, the opposition will become active, barricades will be erected... However, all this takes very serious diplomatic resources both in terms of leadership in all actions, as well as the development of concrete recommendations. At the current stage, unfortunately, all the resources of key actors are spent on activities targeting the most acute problems. In this context, I believe that the normalization of relations between Russia and the USA at least in a number of directions is exceptionally important. It will allow to redirect talented (mind it, talented) diplomats towards the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. In order to understand the severity of lack of resources, I would like to quote the example of the Russian Embassy in the Netherlands. A trusted and close source informed that 80% of the diplomatic staff, including the culture attaché, are currently busy developing methods for fighting against the “pro-American lobby” in the OPCW. And there is neither energy nor time for other topics...

Rauf Mirkadyrov - The international community practically has no resources for the resolution of the conflict.  At least, as long as there is a tough geopolitical confrontation among leading global players. Only Russia can achieve a “lucrative” resolution of the conflict “on its own”, that is, by means of threats, blackmail, and direct military and political pressure, at least at the present stage. Various scenarios may be drawn up.

A few words on internal resources. The so-called blackmail, in simpler terms, the threat of war is also a type of a resource. People shall never forget about the threat of war.  Even Mr. Kazimirov admitted back then that the agreement on ceasefire was “open ended, but not eternal”. People shall always remember that the maintenance of the existing status quo will lead to a large-scale war sooner or later. This is a serious stimulus for responsible politicians.

The loss of independence can also become a serious stimulus. Yes, I fully agree with Andrey Areshev on the point that our leaders, even Pashinyan who took over the steer-wheel literally only yesterday, would not want to become, in the best case scenario, the Governor of a Russian province. It is pleasant to be the master of all, even in a place so small on the map that cannot fit the name of the country. But, as they say, you don’t bring a knife to a gunfight. And neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia have a gun.

I hope that this threat will force the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to demonstrate political will, go for direct negotiations without mediators and arrive at some compromises.

Arman Melikyan - I think it is important to define what the resolution of the