Giro Manoyan

Joint online press conferences with leading experts from different countries on topical issues are organized within the framework of the "Enhancing Knowledge and Understanding of ‘the Other Side’ by Armenians and Azerbaijani Through Alternative and First-Hand Information" project, implemented by Region Research Center (Armenia) and the Institute for Peace and Democracy (Azerbaijan), with the support of the British Embassies in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Artak Barseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia-www.armradio.am (Armenia)

1. What prospects may this year bring for international acknowledgement of the 1915 Armenian Genocide?

-I think that the acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide by about 25 countries and international organizations (the European Parliament, MERCOSUR, UNO and so on) is sufficient  ground for us to be able to assert that the fact of the Armenian Genocide has already reached international recognition. However, there are still some countries whose recognition will be of great political importance. Among the latter are Great Britain and Israel. In 2012 we will see some progress in relation to the acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide by the Israeli Knesset. Besides, in 2012 the denial of the Armenian Genocide will be criminalized in France. In fact, we have now entered a new stage when, on the one hand, the denial of the Genocide is criminalized (just as it happened in Slovakia) and, on the other, reparation is being spoken about. Thus, for instance, reparation has been mentioned in the decision of the House of Representatives of the US Congress in December 2011, which contains a call to Turkey to return to Christians, including Armenians, all their churches and the rich possessions of the church. 

2. Mr. Manoyan, do you think the reanimation of the Armenian-Turkish interstate dialogue may result in the Turkish Parliament’s ratification of the protocols signed in Geneva in 2010?

-I do not think that the protocols of 2009 will be ratified in Turkey in the upcoming 2 or 3 years, since Turkey poses a precondition for this ratification – the resolution of the Karabakh issue. Turkey must keep these protocols “burning,” and that is why it may periodically make steps to create an illusion that it is going to ratify these protocols.

3. How effective is the work of Armenian lobbying organizations in foreign countries today?

-In foreign countries the work of Armenian lobbying organizations encounters new challenges, because the Azerbaijani and Turkish state lobbying has become more active. The geography of joint Azerbaijani and Turkish lobbying has changed, too, currently embracing Arabic countries.

Gagik Baghdasaryan, “News Armenia” news agency-www.newsarmenia.am (Armenia)

1. Mr. Manoyan, do you expect any acute aggravation of the domestic political situation in Armenia after Parliamentary elections? Does Levon Ter-Petrosyan still hold any resources for the radical destabilization of the political processes in the country, just as it happened in 2008?

-Though because of my position I am not competent to answer questions on domestic political developments, I believe that Parliamentary elections in general are developing in a completely different logic if compared to Presidential elections. And the society understands this difference. In Parliamentary elections, especially in the proportional system, a higher degree of importance is ascribed to the political platforms of the parties, in contrast to Presidential elections, when more attention is paid to individual candidates. Moreover, usually in the course of Parliamentary elections votes are given to preferred candidates, while during Presidential elections votes are given for the candidate who has more chances to win. In any case I hope that the year 2008 has taught everyone a lesson, and it will never recur again.

2. Mr. Manoyan, which political force (oppositional or pro-governmental) does the Dashnaktsutyun party consider its ideological (and not political) opponent in Armenia?

-In principle all main political forces are the ideological opponents of the Dashnaktsutyun Party, since they are all right-of-center forces. This is testified to by the fact that all political forces present in the Parliament, except the Dashnaktsutyun, have turned to the European People’s Party (EPP) with a written request for membership to the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR). The Dashanaktsutyun is the only party in the territory of the CIS that is a full-fledged member of SOCINTERN and is invited to participate in the sessions of the Party of European Socialists (PES).

3. Mr. Manoyan, what is the attitude of the Dashnaktsutyun Party to the idea of creating a larger alliance with ideologically akin political forces (social, patriotic)? Is the party ready to run for elections in a block with other forces?

-In principle, such cooperation is not acceptable for us; still it is also necessary to consider the political efficiency of such cooperation.

4. Mr. Manoyan, do you see any prospects in the process of the Karabakh conflict resolution in 2012? How serious is the threat of the renewal of hostilities? Do you think Azerbaijan will decide on unleashing a war by itself, without the “permission” of the global and regional superpowers?

-I think that in 2012 there will be no serious progress in the negotiations over Karabakh. Also I assume that Azerbaijan is not willing to renew the war, but its actions may cause the renewal of hostilities in the end.

5. Mr. Manoyan, what are the prospects of achieving a Pan-European consensus on the acknowledgement and condemnation of the Armenian Genocide? Can the USA in the near future acknowledge the Genocide?

-In 1987, and later several more times the European Parliament acknowledged the fact of the Armenian Genocide. Most states that have recognized the Armenian Genocide are members of the European Union. Hence, I believe that this consensus is already there. As for the House of Representatives of the US, in 1975, 1984 and 1996 it made resolutions on the recognition of the Armenian Genocide. In the last decade these resolutions that were submitted to the House of Representatives, but were never taken to plenary sessions, as well as the recognition of President R. Ragan in 1981 contained calls to the Presidents of the USA to characterize the events of April 24 as Genocide in both their annual messages and foreign policy, in general. That is to say, the USA must also be considered a country that has recognized the Armenian Genocide.

Armen Minasyan, panorama.am (Armenia)

1. How do you think the Karabakh conflict resolution process will develop in 2012 if we take into consideration the fact that both Armenia, and NKR and Azerbaijan, as well as the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries will be holding elections this year?

-Because of these elections, on the one hand, and taking into consideration the fact that Azerbaijan has become a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, on the other, there is going to be no progress in the negotiations on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict in 2012 – 2013. Being displeased with the proposals of the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group, Azerbaijan will try to take the issue over to the UNO Security Council, and thus hinder the progress in the negotiations within the framework of the Minsk Group. And the Minsk Group Co-Chairs will try to hinder the renewal of war. Consequently, it is necessary to concentrate on the process of the acknowledgement of the NKR.

2. The process of the acknowledgement of independent states has become more active recently on the basis of the application of the international law on people’s self-determination. A very vivid example of this process is the acknowledgement of the independent republic of South Sudan, as well as the further increase in the number of the countries that have recognized the independence of Kosovo. How realistic do you think is the intensification of the international acknowledgement of the NKR in the aforementioned context?

-In fact, as it has been proved by the decision of the International Court, dated July 22, 2010, the last decades have been marked by the formation of new states on the basis of self-determination that followed unilateral declarations of independence. However, international relations do not develop exclusively on the basis of international law, and the acknowledgement of states is not a legal but rather a political decision. Consequently, even though the NKR meets all the requirements for the recognition of its independence by the international community, in 2012 political interests will hinder this.

3. How do you think the adoption of the law on the criminalization of the Armenian Genocide denial in France will impact on the process of the further acknowledgement of the Genocide by the international community?

-On the one hand, this bill will contribute to the criminalization of the denial of the Genocide also in other EU member states. But it is more important that this process has raised this issue in Turkey, too. In Turkey there are already some circles, admitting that Turkey itself does not voluntarily agree to acknowledge its past, and the bills adopted in the foreign countries are necessary in order to raise the issue of the genocide in Turkey.

Aydin Kerimov, “Novoye Vremya” newspaper-www.novoye-vremya.com (Azerbaijan)

1. Hello! Does the Dashnaktsutyun Party have territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Turkey?

-The Dashnaktsutyun Party considers that the territories currently under the control of the NKR must be proclaimed to be part of Nagorno Karabakh. As for the Armenian and Turkish border, the Dashanktsutyun Party considers the border defined by the Arbitral Award of the US President W. Wilson, dated 22 November, 1920, as its legal basis.

2. How are the methods of the resolution of the Karabakh conflict assessed by the leaders of your party?

-From the perspective of the Dashnaktsutyun Party the problems must be based on a compromise achieved by both parties. Compromises must be equal, equivalent, simultaneous and part of a whole package. The two main parties of the conflict are Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh. Nagorno Karabakh cannot be within Azerbaijan, and if Azerbaijan continues its unconstructive position in the course of the negotiations, it is necessary to initiate the process of the acknowledgement of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. And this acknowledgement may be at different levels and of different comprehensiveness.

3. Do you think a second war in Karabakh probable in present conditions?

-In the present conditions we cannot exclude the probability of the war, especially taking into consideration the breaches of the armistice by Azerbaijan, the large sums, allocated for arming Azerbaijan and the bellicose announcements of the Azerbaijani administration. This may, even involuntarily, bring to the renewal of the war. Indeed Azerbaijan does not want a beginning of the war since it is not sure of its victory. Even more so, because the war will mean that the riches of the Caspian Sea will turn into a curse for Azerbaijan. In reality, by its aggressive behavior Azerbaijan is trying to blackmail the international community in the person of the Co-Chairs of the Minsk Group, because Azerbaijan is displeased with the options proposed by the Minsk Group.

Anna Bartkulashvili, freelance journalist (Azerbaijan)

1. Good afternoon, Mr. Manoyan! On behalf of the journalists of Azerbaijan I would like to thank you for your participation in the interview. What does France’s rejection of the bill on the criminalization of the denial of the Armenian Genocide mean?

-France has not denied this bill, on the contrary, the Senate will discuss it in the last week of January. It is highly probable that the Senate will adopt this bill, that is why the Presidential candidate (François Olland) representing the socialists who hold the majority of seats in the Senate is a proponent of the bill. The bill is based on a Framework Decision of the EU, dated 2008, that obliges all EU members to adopt laws to criminalize the denial and the disparagement of the Genocide and crimes against humanity.

2. Do you think China has any interests in the region of South Caucasus? Anna Bartkulashvili

-Yes, I do.

3. Do you think the low demographic indices – the high levels of emigration and low density of population in the broder regions –  are a weak link for Armenia? Thanks, Anna Bartkulashvili.

-The demographic situation in Armenia that comes from emigration is, in general, a cause for anxiety. And the whole of Armenia may be considered a border region with even the largest cities  - Yerevan and Gyumri – located only 20 kilometers away from the border with Turkey by a direct route. So, in Armenia the problem is not so much in the demographic picture of the border regions, but the equal development of all the regions.

Natig Javadli, “Bizim Yol” newspaper-www.bizimyol.az (Azerbaijan)

1. Good afternoon! The Dashnaktsutyun Party has been building its policy on Turcophobia and the sufferings of the Armenian people. How successful can this policy be in the present conditions of globalization?

-The Dashnaktsutyun Party is 121 years old. All this time the policy of the party has never been based on phobias. In the times of the Ottoman Empire the Dashnaktsutyun Party participated in the revolution of 1908. However, the response of the Young Turks was the Armenian Genocide. In 1918 the Dashnaktsutyun was not for the collapse of the Transcaucasian Seim that resulted in the declarations of independence of Georgia and Azerbaijan. As a socialist party, Dashnaktsutyun has always acted as a proponent of the brotherhood of nations, which however, must be based on equal rights among them. Brotherhood would not violate the rights of the Armenian people, whereas the interests of Armenians are defied because of the interests of other peoples.

2. The main driving factor of your party – “The Great Armenian Illusions” – has brought to Armenia’s becoming an outpost for Russia. Perhaps time has come to move from fantasy up to reality?

-The military and strategic cooperation between Armenia and Russia was designed in 1997 by the President of Armenia who for the sake of establishing relations with Turkey tried to make use of all the available options. However, the hostile attitude of Turkey finally convinced him that in order to hinder Turkey’s threats it is necessary to step into a military cooperation with Russia. Some illusions cherished by our party, as you call them, have been as follows: the independence of Armenia, the liberation of Nagorno Karabakh, and these are already established facts. Time has come for Azerbaijan to become a realist and to admit that the Soviet Union has long collapsed and consequently Nagorno Karabakh cannot belong to Azerbaijan any longer.

3. Don’t you think that the Nagorno Karabakh conflict can be resolved through the democratization of Armenia and Azerbaijan?

-We should admit that the democratization of Armenia must still continue, though in comparison with Azerbaijan, Armenia is a more developed democracy. In the NKR democracy is even better developed than in Armenia and Azerbaijan. The development of democracy in Azerbaijan, and in the region in general, will by all means contribute to the peaceful settlement of the conflict. However, it should be mentioned that democratization cannot automatically bring to a resolution. The resolution on the basis of negotiations is not the only option. The resolution can be based on the international acknowledgement of the NKR. In any case the relationships of Nagorno Karabakh with neighboring Azerbaijan will be more natural if there is democracy.

Tarana Kyazimova, “Turan” news agency-www.contact.az (Azerbaijan)

1. Good afternoon! What is the position of the Dashnaktsutyun Party to the normalization of the Armenian and Turkish relations?

-The Dashnaktsutyun Party has come to a conclusion that the official position of Armenia – to establish relations with Turkey without preconditions – is also acceptable to us. However, Turkey continues to determine its relations with Armenia by preconditions. This is unacceptable to the Dashnaktsutyun Party. The Party considers that Armenia must abandon its signature under the 2009 protocols, and instead a project of a simpler agreement must be put on the table of negotiations, stating that:

1. both states have come to the decision to establish diplomatic relations,

2. both states have decided to open all land roads and passages between them

3. both states have decided to settle all the issues existent between them peacefully, on the basis of the international law and coming from the best practice in international relations.

The day on which Turkey is ready to establish relations with Armenia without preconditions may be the beginning of the establishment of relations between the two states. The development of these relations up to good-neighborly ones must certainly lie through the acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide and Turkey’s assumption of its own responsibility.

2. Will your party join a ruling coalition? On what issues do you disagree with Serzh Sargsyan’s policy? What issues do you support him on?

-We can speak of joining this or that coalition only after the results of the upcoming Parliamentary elections become known. I think that the Dashanaktsutyun will not join any coalition in which its role will not be influential, in other words, where there is no need for its votes within the Parliament. As for the policy led by Serzh Sargsyan, our Party does not agree on the socio-economic policy led by the ruling coalition and thinks that it is too liberal with present monopolies. The Dashnaktsutyun also disagrees with the foreign policy led by Serzh Sargsyan, especially with regard to the Armenian and Turkish protocols. 

Rauf Mirkadirov, “Zerkalo” newspaper-www.zerkalo.az (Azerbaijan)

1. Hello, Mr. Manoyan. I am well aware of the position of your party and your own personal position on the resolution of the Armenian and Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, as well as the normalization of the Armenian and Turkish relations. However, there are some socio-economic realia that, as a rule, make some changes in the officially declared position of this or that political force on this or that issue. To put it into simpler terms, we cannot always and maximally get what we want. That is why I would like to know what are the probable and, I would like to especially highlight, mutually acceptable conditions for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict and the normalization of the Armenian and Turkish relations?

-From the perspective of the Dashnaktsutyun Party, the political realia regarding these issues and speaking publicly of minimal possibilities in general would mean to make a one-sided concession. In these negotiations every side will have its own minimums and will negotiate. From this perspective, the Dashnaktsutyun Party does not agree to the policy on the Karabakh issue led by the leadership of Armenia, since they speak of the concessions to be made by Armenia without any promises on the part of Azerbaijan to make equal and simultaneous concessions.

2. I have an impression that the policy led by Armenia is in general directed to the past and not to the future. Doesn’t this approach hinder the solution of problems with building a future jointly with its neighbors? Isn’t this related to the fact that today they more often speak of the end of Armenians and the depopulation of the country?

-In order not to repeat the mistakes of the past we cannot overlook this very past. Armenians and Armenia are not ready to sacrifice their past for the sake of neighborly relations with the adjacent countries. Moreover, the establishment of relations with these neighbors is hindered especially because some of them presently want to make use of the results of those crimes they committed in the past and are unwilling to acknowledge their responsibility for these crimes. The causes for migration from Armenia consist mainly in the socio-economic policy led within Armenia.

3. Aren’t you worried by the fact that Armenia has already become a monoethnic country? Is it easier to live that way?

-The ethnic composition and demographic picture of the population of Armenia is rather a result of the policy some neighboring countries lead towards the Armenians living at their borders than the policy led by Armenia itself.

4. In both Armenia and Azerbaijan they very willingly try to cash the establishment of their own position on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict on historical factors. In general how reasonable, effective and acceptable do you think the manipulation of the historical factor as an argument for the resolution of territorial and ethnic conflicts is?

-When settling conflicts with ethnic and territorial features we cannot come only from one principle. At the same time, we cannot neglect any factor. And these are de jure, de facto, as well as historical and security factors.

Anjela Khachatryan, 1in.am (Armenia)

1. Good afternoon, Mr. Manoyan! Do you think it probable that the authorities of Armenia will not falsify Parliamentary elections? Do you believe in Serzh Sargsyan’s assertions made in his New-Year message that the elections of 2012 will be in a way we cannot even imagine?

-Even though I have already said that I will not answer questions on domestic policy, I will repeat that the representatives of the Dashnaktsutyun Party who are competent in this field have spoken out on these issues: we must undertake steps in order to guarantee maximally free and fair elections in May 2012. The Party has already announced that it is ready to cooperate with any political force to this end.

2. As it is expected, on the eve of elections the parties willing to be elected into the Parliament present their platforms and ideas to their voters. What does the Dashnaktsutyun Party have to offer to the Armenian voter? What are its accomplishments and why should the voter cast his/her vote for your party?

-The pre-election platform of the Dashnaktsutyun Party will be published in due time and will contain the socio-economic and political approaches of the Party, the main part of which is lobbied by the Parliamentary Dashnaktsutyun faction. To evaluate the accomplishments of the Dashnaktsutyun Party we should look at all its accomplishments in Armenia, starting from 1989. This would be impossible to do within the limits of this online interview due to the latter’s specifics. The Dashnaktsutyun Party has acted in all the spheres of the development of the state starting from defense to the reinforcement of the democracy and the provision of social justice, the development of agriculture, spheres of education and healthcare. The Party has already announced that because of the level of its representation in the Parliament, it has not had any chance to implement all its programs.

3. Before elections all politicians become sociologists and try to predict which forces will win in the elections. Which parties do you think will be elected into the new Parliament, and who will get which percent of the seats?

-I would not like to become either a sociologist or a predictor. One thing is clear – there is no single political force in Armenia that enjoys the confidence of the majority of the population.

4. Yesterday the Russian mass media disseminated information that at the end of January a meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will take place in Sochi through the mediation of Dmitri Medvedev. Analysts and political scientists believe that at the January meeting which there are no official announcements about the parties will rather discuss the issue of Iran, than that of Karabakh, since both Armenia and Azerbaijan are the immediate neighbors of Iran and not simply detached states. Quite considerable developments and tendencies can be noticed in the Iranian problem. Tension is rising. Moreover, in the issue with Iran Russia is one of the most interested states whose position is considerably different from that of the West. Do you think the Iranian issue will be discussed in the January meeting and will Russia try to gain allies in the persons of Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the issue of Iran?

-I will repeat myself saying that I cannot act as a predictor. I think that the information of the Russian mass media on the agenda of the meeting is somewhat exaggerated.