Russia and the Karabakh Conflict – 2018: Page 6 of 6

he also played the trump of Karabakh to preserve power. While Nikol Pashinyan does not have time to concentrate on it.

Vadim Mukhanov - Today, both sides have limited capacity for coming to an outcome of the conflict.

Alexander Podrabinek - Armenia and Azerbaijan do not have tools for the peaceful resolution of the conflict.

On the capacity of mediators and regional actors

Emin Ahmedbekov - Right now both Russia and Turkey and Iran have their own economic problems, and I do not think that they can have any influence on the conflict.

Vadim Mukhanov - The role of the co-chairing countries is significant, but only their consolidated and constant influence on the parties can yield fruit, which we cannot see today. Iran, and especially Turkey, play a significant role and are actively involved in the palette of the conflict. If we recall the events of 2016, we can see that Ankara’s role and involvement in the conflict was very significant.

Alexander Podrabinek - Russia is interested in maintaining tensions and smoldering military conflicts in the Caucasus under the current authoritarian regime. Therefore, all efforts will be directed at preserving the status quo. It will continue to support both sides, distributing its assistance in accordance with its own interests.

On the possible entry of Azerbaijan into the CSTO and the role of this organization

Emin Ahmedbekov – The CSTO is a fictitious organization, like GUAM, and many others. Azerbaijan will never join this organization. All the threats are devised against the background of Russia's instructions to pacify Pashinyan's ardor and prevent the emergence of a new Saakashvili in the Caucasus.

Stepan Grigoryan - Of course the CSTO is an inefficient organization. Azerbaijan's entry into the CSTO is unrealistic. I think this ado was raised by Russia so that Nikol Pashinyan became more compliant and refrained from raising difficult questions in the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Vadim Mukhanov – Should we have a strong desire, the CSTO can be considered a deterrent lever, but only of the second or third rank. The degree of influence of this organization on the situation and its development in the region is insignificant. I agree with my colleagues that it is not necessary to expect Azerbaijan's joining the CSTO in the near future.

Alexander Podrabinek - Azerbaijan's integration into the CSTO is possible if there is a real threat to the preservation of Aliyev's power. This may be an external or internal threat, in this case the dictator will be determined to undertake on any measure that can keep him in power.