The Karabakh Conflict in the Context of Political Processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan - 2018: Page 10 of 11

from Russia.

Arif Yunusov –Today we are not talking about the role of external players, but about the role of the orientation of Armenia and Azerbaijan and how this affects them both and the Karabakh conflict. Everything is much more complicated in case of Azerbaijan.Availability of resources once made it possible for Azerbaijan to enter into conflict with Russia and abandon Russian gas, and even help their neighboring Georgia on this matter to spite Russia. Let us also recall the support to the Chechens during the wars in the North Caucasus. And much more. That is, initially Azerbaijan had a wider field for maneuvering. But for Azerbaijan, this advantage turned into a disadvantage. In the recent years, Ilham Aliyev has significantly ruined his relationship with Western countries, the orientation in this direction has narrowed considerably. But this does not mean that Azerbaijan has made a major lean towards Russia, as Gela Vasadze mentions above.Yes, many Azerbaijani experts and politicians, especially those close to the authorities, often mention the possibility of Azerbaijan joining the EEU and CSTO. This misleads many living abroad. In fact, all we see is just a game with the West on the part of Aliyev. That is, Azerbaijan has considered Russia, at least for the last 10 years, as a factor of pressure on the West. As soon as the US and the EU begin to exert pressure on the official Baku, immediately in response, the latter makes a courtesy toward Moscow, intentionally buying something from Russia or supporting Putin's policy in some actions minor for Azerbaijan, but important for the West. But the talks that Azerbaijan will join the EEU, and especially the CSTO cannot be considered serious at least in the near future. The third direction in foreign policy orientation is the Eastern one. Turkey of course comes the first here. It seems pretty straightforward. I will add only that if earlier in the 90s the Turkish model was basically a reference point of the opposition, now we should speak more about the rapprochement of the two ruling elites, primarily Erdogan and Aliyev. They have the same governing style, attitude to many issues and major problems with the West. In general, everything is straightforward here. It’s harder with Iran, although from time to time the parties develop economic relations, but still there is some chill. However, there is another factor that has an influence in Azerbaijan. If the elder Soviet generation clearly distanced itself from the Eastern direction and looked and still looks towards the West, now a new generation has emerged that perceives the East and the Islamic world as close to itself. If in the 90s the Islamic Party was a party of marginals and its influence did not extend beyond the village of Nardaran, now the Islamists are popular all over the country. It is no accident that Azerbaijanis are very active among the participants in the fights in the Middle East (Afghanistan and Syria), moreover, they are fighting on both sides in Syria! The authorities began to take this point into account. Especially