Challenges to the Security of the South Caucasus Countries and NATO - 2016: Page 6 of 9
19 July, 2016
its centuries-old ally.
Vakhtang Marisaia – It seems to me that the priorities of NATO and Russia in the region are evolving within the frameworks of the so-called "security dilemma", where the parties are trying to build their military capabilities and the tools of political pressure on the countries of the region, compete with each other in geostrategic dimensions. On the one hand the intensive NATO military exercises in Georgia and implementation of the Comprehensive Assistance Package, and on the other hand strengthening of its military potential in the territories of occupied Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as the establishment of joint air defense system with Armenia and strengthening of Caspian flotilla by Russia.
Sergey Markedonov - Here we have a complex knot of issues. First, I would not talk about the experience of balancing between the important for the country players as about some Russian know-how. The US are known as an ally of Israel, but it does not prevent them from having their own line of cooperation with Palestine as well and with Turkey (while the relations of Israel with this country were in a state of "cold peace"). You cannot consider Russian military-technical cooperation with Azerbaijan from the "post-April" standpoint. That is a hindsight bias. No one in 2010 and 2011 could predict with absolute accuracy how Russian weapons would be used. There were risks, but again no guarantees would be given. Moreover, Azerbaijan has four suppliers (in addition to Russian Federation there is Ukraine, Israel and Turkey. From the latter NATO samples are obtained). And the primary factor here is not Russian weapons but the desire of Baku to take revenge for 1994 defeat. With or without Russia, that desire would not disappear.However, today we have an example, when the weapon sold to the partner country at the market price is actually used against the ally. It is necessary to draw conclusions, make adjustments, but in my opinion, it is shortsighted to talk about necessity of a break or a radical revision of Russian-Armenian bilateral relations. NATO is not an alternative for Armenia today. If tomorrow it is, then we will discuss it.
Hayk Martirosyan - I think that the comparison with the US-Turkey-Palestine-Israel is inappropriate. Turkey has never announced its desire to devastate Israel, and nobody sells Palestine last generation weapons. In fact, no one sells weapons to Palestine at all. The situation would be comparable, if for example the US would sell strongest weapons to Iran, even with a guarantee that Iran will not use it against Israel.
Azerbaijan started talking about its desire to devastate Armenia nor in April neither just before April. It never actually ceased the murder of Armenian soldiers by the snipers on the contact line. Mentioning the examples of Ukraine, Israel and Turkey is also not relevant, because none of these countries except for USA produces analogues to C-300, TOC-1 and Smerch. The USA produces, but does not sell to Azerbaijan or Armenia. Sale of such weapons to Azerbaijan does not stand up to criticism and is
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