Alexander Rahr

Topics: Security issues in the post-Soviet countries

The integration processes in the Eurasian territory - EEU, SCO, BRICS

David Stepanyan (Armenia)

ArmInfo News Agency

Question:

Hello, Mr. Rahr!

Armenia has been participating in the Eurasian integration project initiated by Moscow for over six months now. But until now no tangible progress has been observedin the economy of the Republic.What is your opinion on the perspectives of the EEU?

Answer:

Ask the Greeks or the Portuguese what tangible progress they have got from the membership with the EU. I think  Armenia does not want to be out of any regional economic block, when all the countries of the world are somehow integrated in some kind of an international organization.

David Stepanyan (Armenia)

ArmInfo News Agency

Question:

Will the deployment of US missile defense system in the Eastern Europe be adjusted, following the adoption of UN Security Council resolution on Iran's nuclear programme, given that the threat from the Iranian side, at least nominally, has disappeared?

Answer:

Lifting sanctions against Iran, neutralizes US arguments in favor of missile defense.  Now the Americans have to state that missile defense is necessary against Russia. I do not think that all Europeans will like it. This is a very interesting question.

Artak Barseghyan (Armenia)

Public Radio of Armenia

Question:

What is the political component of the EEU?

Answer:

I tried to cover this question in my previous answer.

Mariam Grigoryan (Armenia)

1in.am  Armenian News & Analyses

Question:

Iran announced its readiness to export gas to Europe in large volumes after lifting the economic sanctions. I wonder whether the route through Armenia and Georgia is possible. Will Russia, the strategic partner of Armenia, allow it?

Answer:

An iinteresting idea this is: the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline to the north. I have heard about it recently, even in Brussels. But how would it be possible to come to an agreement with Georgia?

"Hetq" Online (Armenia)

Quesion:

Mr. Rahr, what do you think the European Union, as an organization, is interested in the South Caucasus?What is the role of this region in the international coordinates of the German foreign policy? Some time ago, the President of Azerbaijan literally announced that it's Europethat needs Azerbaijan and not vice versa, and that Azerbaijan will cooperate with Europe only on equal rights.

Answer:

The President of Azerbaijan is right. The EU desperately needs Azerbaijani gas as an alternative to the Russian one. Azerbaijan and Armenia are member countries of the EU Eastern Partnership policy; they have the same goal, to get closer to Europe. Europe adopted the two countries not only in the partnership strategy, but made them members of the Council of Europe. The only question is how to move forward? Here the conflict of values, territorial problems, and other inconsistencies also hinder. In my opinion, the process of rapprochement of the South Caucasus and the EU will long be an issue of discussions. Here the Turkish factor plays a significant role. Will Turkey under Erdogan and after him continue to seek membership with the EU?

Artak Barseghyan (Armenia)

Public Radio of Armenia

Question:

You are the author of a book about Vladimir Putin, which Ihad the honor to read. What do you think, how likely is it that the current president of Russia would stand for re-election in 2018?

Answer:

As of today, I don't see any reasons for which Putin would refuse to participate in the elections in 2018.He will be 65 by then. I need to write the next book urgently.;))

Mariam Grigoryan (Armenia)

1in.am  Armenian News & Analyses

Question:

After lifting the blockade of Iran, is the participation and involvement of this country in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict possible? 

Answer:

I think Iran won't be invited to the OSCE Minsk Group. What's the vision of Iran on the issue of NagornoKarabakh? Turkey in its turn won't be satisfied with the involvement of Iran in the regional peacemaking. Iran has enough concerns to attend to in Syria, Iraq, and now in Yemen.The Iranianpolitical vector is to the south.

Artak Barseghyan (Armenia)

Public Radio of Armenia

Question:

How do you estimate the probability of strengthening the position of Iran in the South Caucasus region in the light of the expected lift of sanctions against the country?

Answer:

I have already expressed my opinion on this issue above. Iran will seek ways out of the current isolation. The road to Europe through the South Caucasus will be long. And without (or in competition with) Russia Iran will face difficulties in operating on energy issues. There is a variant of rapidly turning to the Asian markets. So Tehran will get there through Central Asia.

Artak Barseghyan (Armenia)

Public Radio of Armenia

Question:

What is the probability of theexpansion of EEU at the expense of Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan?

Answer:

Azerbaijan may become a member of EEU if its ties with EU is completely interrupted. Azerbaijan may become interested in the new Eurasian energy market, created by Russia and China, which integrates the whole of Central Asia, and perhaps India and Pakistan, too. Turkey is a probable candidate for the status of observer in the SCO. This will happen after Russia and Turkey have agreed on energy issues. Iran has chances to become a full member of the SCO.

"Hetq" Online (Armenia)

Question:

Please specify the problems and international issues, which the''Collective West'' and Russiacan solve without each other. What's your opinion on the further development of the so-called “conflict of values” between the two parties? What place does it take in a bouquet of contradictions?

Answer:

The West and Russia may move separately but then the issues of the Middle East will be more difficult to solve. In Europe the West tried to solve the security issues after the collapse of communism without Russia. Its evidence is the construction of Europe upon the pillars of NATO and the EU without Russia. In the world trade, in one of the most important peacebuilding platforms, Russia acts as an energy superpower. Can you do without Russia? Opinions differ. Today the conflict of values is the main confrontation between the West and Russia. This conflict cannot be solved; the contradiction is ancientand traditional. Just like Rome and Byzantium. Different perceptions of laws of civilization, rights and democracy. At least there should be a yearningfor conducting a respectful dialogue with each other.

David Stepanyan (Armenia)

ArmInfoNews Agency

Question:

Syria has recently begun negotiations with Russia on the integration in the EEU. Has this turned into another confirmation of conventional wisdom according to which the EEU is a purely political project, designed tostrengthen the imperial ambitions of the Russian Government?

Answer:

Syria won't become an EEU member. Its geography and geopolitics will not allow for that.But one day it may appear on the agenda of the SCO.

David Stepanyan (Armenia)

ArmInfoNews Agency

Question:

Is the recent military build-up of NATO forces, particularly on the borders of Russia with the Eastern European countries a mechanism for deterring Moscow? Or are Washington and Brussels seriously preparing to respond to the Russian invasion, for example, into the Baltic countries?

Answer:

I do not know a single politician in the Kremlin,who would seriously think of bringing the Baltic states, and much less Poland back to Russia. What for? It is absurd. New Russia(Novorossiya), perhaps will be a certain backup in case Ukraine becomes decentralized. However, unlike some Western experts, I don't see any intentions of the self-defense forces to take Mariupol and then to move along the south coast of the Black Sea to Transnistria. The number one goal for Putin was not to let NATO into the Crimea. In the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union security issues were given a priority. With a clear analysis, it could be observed that a way was being paved for Ukraine to join NATO.

Emil Babayan  (Armenia)

EurAsia Daily

Question:

Alexander Glebovich, hello!  A short question with the expectation of a detailed response:

Today, almost everyone is speaking about the perspectives of theBRICS and SCO, their expansion, and so on. Those who are optimistic about BRICS predict a division of the world, while skeptics laugh at them. So, in your opinion, how promising and substantial are the integration formats?

Answer:

Well, I will express my viewpoint. Ithink BRICS is yet a symbol of an attempt of multipolar worldconstruction. This is what the leaders of Russia, China, India, Brazil, etc. want. Otherwise, they wouldn't have come to distant Ufa. I don't believe that the world will remain unipolar in the coming 10 years.We have had an extensive interview on this issue. The problem is only in the new structure of this world. BRICS is not very likely to sustain and play a major role. Maybe the new bipolar system of the US-China. Maybe Chimerika. Maybe the new Eurasia under Chinese leadership, together with Russia. As for the SCO it is a more serious organization. It undertakes important tasks for the stabilization of Afghanistan. From a purely Russian-Chinese project, the SCO is transformed into a workable architecture, bringing together the Eurasian-Chinese space and the Middle East. Let’s wait and see.

Emil Babayan  (Armenia)

EurAsia Daily

Question:

Another question: what's your viewpoint on the settlement of the Ukraine crisis? In your opinion, is a comprehensive solution to this conflict possible in the foreseeable future, and if so, how to come to that?

Answer:

Emil, my warmest greetings!  Yes, I think that all the conflicting sides with the exception of radicals in the private armed units of Ukraine and militia now have come to an agreement thatit is necessary to settle the conflict, or at least to freeze it like in Transnistria. What should be done? Ukraine must recognize the autonomy of Donbass (a special status resembling the treaties once signed by Boris Yeltsin with the Russian regions), thus preventing the collapse of Russia. Russia must stop sending military aid to the self-defense forces and agree on an OSCE monitoring of the entire Russian-Ukrainian border.

Mariam Grigoryan (Armenia)

1in.am  Armenian News & Analyses

Question:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has repeatedly stated that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution is a priority for Moscow. Recently, James Warlick has stated that comprehensive solution to the conflict is impossible without determining the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. In such situation, can there be progress in conflict resolution?

Answer:

The issue is what the various politicians of this or that country mean by "settlement" of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. In my opinion, the interest of the West won't allow new wars in this region. The interest of Russia is to quarrel neither with its ally Armenia nor its strategic partner Azerbaijan. I think that the current status quo is quite satisfactory for the majority of participants.

Armen Minasyan (Armenia)

Panorama.am

Question:

What effect will the confrontation between Russia and the West have on the escalation of the situation in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the negotiation process?

Answer:

I tried to cover your question in my previous answer. The West and Russia do not need a new hotbed of tension. Donbass, ISIS, Syria. The West is tired of military conflicts. The diplomacy of gradual settlement will be enabled.

Armen Minasyan (Armenia)

Panorama.am

Question:

How effectively does the EEU operate and does it meet the expectations of the cofounding countries?

Answer:

The process of EEU formation has been slowed down because of the Ukraine events, but it will be accelerated in response to what is happening in the Middle East. Kazakhstan definitely needs the EEU for the ties with Europe.For Belarus, the EEU is a matter of economic survival, and the same seems to be true for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.  

Armen Minasyan (Armenia)

Panorama.am

Question:

In the statements of the OSCE Minsk Group and various Western countries on the escalation of the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone, an equality sign is often put between the sides, even in the cases when Azerbaijan obviously bears the responsibility. Don’t you consider this approach, to put it mildly, inadequate, and provoking Bakuto new adventures?

Answer:

Well, the conflict should be resolved strictly within the framework of the international law. The difficulty is that there exist disputes on which principle of international law is more important: the territorial integrity of a state or self-determination of peoples?

Armen Minasyan (Armenia)

Panorama.am

Question:

How do you estimate the statement by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair James Warlick on the "need to return the occupied territories"?  Will it change the bases of the negotiation process conducted on the Madrid Principles?

Answer:

I have previously touched upon the issues of various principles, perceptions and interpretations of international law. Different, sometimes contradictoryopinionsare expressed.

Armen Minasyan (Armenia)

Panorama.am

Question:

What are the perspectives for the CSTO as a military structure serving as a counterweight to NATO in the former Soviet space and as an organization ensuring the security of the member countries? Will it follow the path of extension or disintegration?

Answer:

Frankly speaking, we must admit that the CSTO is Russia. Does CSTO have a future? Yes, since the Central Asian countries need such a structure. How else can they ensure their security? NATO will not reach the post-Soviet space, now it will be prevented by Russia (and China).