Valeriu Ostalep
Former Deputy Minister of Foreigh Affairs and European Integration
Молдова
Оnline press conference with Valeriu Ostalep, the Head of the Institute of Diplomatic, Political and Security Studies, former deputy minister of foreign affairs and European integration of the Republic of Moldova.
Topics: Processes taking place today in Moldova (protests, the likely developments, the status of the Pridnestrovian conflict on the background of the Ukrainian crisis)
David Stepanyan (Armenia)
ArmInfo News Agency
Question: The reasons for and objectives of the September protests in Moldova have much been spoken about. What do you think of them?
Answer: Once again I would like to reiterate myself – the protest mood of the population in Moldova is extensive. If today there was a strong leader, clearly articulating his political views and ready to sweep away this power by legal means, he would have easily won the sympathy of the majority of the population. The hatred towards the authorities is enormous. But at the moment this mood has been taken advantage of by some right-wing people who want to create their own party. This is how it will all end in terms of this particular protest. But the trouble for this power will not end, it will only get worse. Now, in addition to internal pressure, they will get more of exterior pressure, too, by the way, from their former political sponsors. Therefore, these changes in Moldova will still have to wait, but not specifically due to this protest. Today we can surely state that Moldova is just another place where the EU got disgraced and proved its complete lack of understanding of the realities to the east of its borders.
David Stepanyan (Armenia)
ArmInfo News Agency
Question: Armenian youth protests against the unjustified rise in electricity prices in Baghramian Avenue were characterized as an attempt of "Maidan" by the Russian media and experts. Are there any similar trends in relation to the protesters in Chisinau?
Answer: The Russian press certainly covers the events in Moldova in various ways, it is absolutely normal, as in Chisinau it is very difficult for us to understand why we cannot expect a clear and distinct understanding of basic events in the Moldovan reality from Russian journalists. I cannot say that there is any special attitude by the Russian press to these events. In principle, Moldova is unlikely to be in the focus of the special attention of the Russian press. The current protest is characterized by the fact that for the first time in five years it is not the opposition that protests, but those who used to support this government. Actually this is why many hastened to treat this protest as something important. In fact, this protest is likely to be deflated and in the near future will be remembered by the creation of a new right-wing political movement to replace those who are in power now.
David Stepanyan (Armenia)
ArmInfo News Agency
Question: At the demonstrations in Moldova demands for the accession to Romania are still voiced. What is the cause of such statements and what are the prospects for the implementation such a scenario?
Answer: In Moldova, there is a certain representation of the Romanian minority. They are about 7-8% of the population. Due to certain circumstances, it is the most hysterical and the least tolerant part of the Moldovan society, which constantly calls for several things - the disappearance of the Moldovan state, they do not recognize the existence of the Moldovan people and the only thing that they perceive in this life is the union of Moldova with Romania. It is this hysterical part of the society that keeps screaming and against the background of the comparative passivity of the rest of the population, their vociferous statements are impossible to ignore. But the unionist sentiments in the country are rated at 3-4%. In fact, there are no prerequisites and no legal or other justifications for the unification with Romania, it's impossible, and it is possible to perceive as a certain form of hysteria. It must be admitted that Romania is pretty unfriendly towards us, it systematically makes territorial claims, political claims on our sovereignty, as the top leadership of that country also claims that Moldova should cease to exist, and the political project of Romania is the union with Moldova and therefore the elimination of the Moldovan statehood and against the background of the lack of any progress in the economy these empty cries, that are in clear violation of the Moldovan law and are disrespectful for the Moldovan people are just heard in the media. In fact, no real preconditions may exist in principle, but as a definite threat in the form of provocations and hysteria, it exists, it has been there since 1989, it has never been stopped, it is neither more nor less, and this should be treated accordingly.
David Stepanyan (Armenia)
ArmInfo News Agency
Question: Is it possible to predict Moscow's reaction to a possible change of power in Chisinau that would be similar to the reaction to the change of government in Kiev, given the issues of Transnistria and Gagauzia?
Answer: Hello. Thank you all for the invitation and for your interest in the events related to Moldova. We are not talking about any change of power at the moment. Protest actions relatively modest by scale are being held in Moldova, they will be over in the near future due result in the creation of a new right-wing party. There is a certain group of people who try to make use of the protest moods, which undoubtedly exist at the moment in the Moldovan society, due to the disastrous performance of the economy, complete degradation of state institutions, endemic corruption of the highest political class, and so on. All this taken together was called a success story by the European Union in the last five years, and now when a billion has been lost from Moldova, with the connivance of the state institutions and, of course, major politicians in the country, the European Union is trying to pretend that they are "not really in it", but they are not very good at pretending this, for they tried to convince Moldova for five years that these same people are not just the "Fathers of Success" and the very best thing that can be in our country and urged all to vote for them. Now, when these people have discredited the idea of European integration and the idea of Moldovan statehood, and emerged simply as cheap frauds, the EU is trying to "disown" these same politicians. The general mood of protest in the country is not expressed so far through the prism of some political action, so the main square of the country hosts a certain number of people, and at the moment we can predict that it will probably just turn into another right-wing party, but without any special and promising prospects. So much about the protests in our country. Moscow's reaction has absolutely nothing to do with it because, first of all, Russia is quite passively watching what is going on in Moldova, no action is taken, in addition to regular invitations for dialogue, which are never attended by the Moldovan politicians, or rather their curators from Brussels. And so you can accurately say that no active steps Russia at the moment Moldova does not take.
"Hetq" online newspaper (Armenia)
Question: Mr. Ostalep, you are the former deputy foreign minister of Moldova. What are the strengths and weaknesses (errors, if they exist, of course) of Moldova's foreign policy today?
Answer: The biggest mistake of the Moldovan politicians and, of course, the Moldovan diplomacy is that in their actions they rely not on the economic and political interests of the Moldovan people and the narrow selfish interests of political groups, which currently is at the helm of the country. This has almost always been the main problem of Moldova's domestic and foreign policy. According to my subjective judgment, of course, we are now at the peak of anti-national foreign policy. All that is done in foreign and domestic policy goes totally against the natural interests of the state. They are dictated by the geopolitical interests of the west, which in the person of the current government currently has people fully under its control. "They do it just as they want," as long as there is anti-Russian hysteria. Those politicians and diplomats in our country who will base their actions primarily on the economic interests of the country will ultimately be a success. Such are not particularly visible at the moment. Well, I cannot fail to note the very low level of intellectual and political culture, not to mention the training of political leadership and staff of the Moldovan diplomacy. In particular, during my term in office, more than 50% of the people working with the issues of foreign policy were quite professionally unfit. The main problem, of course, consists in the heterogeneity of the political preferences of the population. Some are in favor of the West; some are in favor of Russia. The mastery of foreign policy would have consisted in this, in order to be able to get along with this low level of understanding of the realities and work in the interest of the Moldovan state without any extremes (only the EU, but Russia, only Romania, and so on).
Tatev Harutyunyan (Armenia)
Aravot.am
Question: Various Russian media outlets compared the events taking place in Moldova these days with the Maidan. How justified are such comparisons, or is it another manifestation of the Russian propaganda?
Answer: Virtually any journalism is anyway and sooner or later compared with propaganda. I have long ceased to pay attention to these clichés. The journalist, after all, just like any other human being, just like you and me has the same subjective understanding of all processes. No matter whether it is the CNN, the first channel or Moldovan TV. If someone due to their narrow understanding of the process in Moldova, just called it Maidan, someone else called it a revolution, I am not in a hurry to call it Russian propaganda. This is only because of the partial misunderstanding of happenings by an individual journalist, because naturally there is no Maidan in Moldova. Once again I would like to stress that the Russian media in principle pays quite little attention to Moldova, and I do not notice any Russian propaganda in Moldova.
Tatevik Ghazaryan (Armenia)
News.am
Question: Mr. Ostalep, how likely is the change of power in Moldova as a result of passing the mass protests in the country?
Answer: It should be understood that the Moldovan authorities are completely compromised. Neither partially, nor with reservations, but fully. Therefore, the end of this power may come in absolutely every day, it is very difficult to predict, and has nothing to do with these protests. This government has absolutely no legitimacy: the majority of the population sincerely hates them, and you will learn it from any person in our country. Therefore, these very protests are unlikely to lead to a change of government, but everyone is expecting it, and it could come true any day.
Emil Babayan (Armenia)
EurAsia Daily
Question: Does the appointment of Saakashvili in the position of the Governor of Odessa as the transition of the Odessa under the direct control of the United States? Under what conditions and in what circumstances will Russia be forced to provide direct military assistance to Transnistria?
Answer: As far as I can judge about our neighbors, the Odessa region has not yet become another state of the United States, at least in terms of its economic activity. I love and have great respect for our Ukrainian neighbors and I am convinced that the country has huge economic and human potential. But the new fashion of bringing in some outsiders from abroad is shocking to me and is beyond my understanding. Are there no local people all over Ukraine and the Odessa region who can manage their region? This is absurd. Then there is a need to openly admit one’s own failure and to say that the state is unable to control itself, because it does not have its own human resources and to pass under official external financing and management. If Transnistria is in immediate danger of war, of course, it will instantly receive military support from Russia. No one doubts this. I sincerely hope that neither Chisinau nor other players have suicidal thoughts, and even more so no plans about any kind of military solution to this conflict. It will quickly end with the physical elimination of those who have generated such ideas. The only way to solve the Transnistrian problem is a direct dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol.
Tatevik Ghazaryan (Armenia)
News.am
Question: Are the happenings in Chisinau the attempts of the West to intimidate or to remove the unpopular pro-Western segment ahead of time - before the pro-Russian forces have taken the initiative?
Answer: Your question is one of the most popular versions of assumptions about these protests existing in Moldova. Some time ago, the mentees of the west began to take liberties in Moldova. And no longer would they "fully" comply, allowing themselves initiatives in the form of economic crimes at a large scale. Since the advice and admonitions did not really work, at first the West stopped full financing of Moldova, and then moved on to more specific hints. It should be understood that in the case of early elections, the party supporting the European Union today will suffer a catastrophic defeat. Therefore, the EU does not quite recommend holding early elections. And in the near future the emergence of new, supposedly clean right-wing parties should be expected in Moldova. But, of course, this is the first time the West has supported protests against the government, which it recommended to the Moldovan people until recently.
Tatev Harutyunyan (Armenia)
Aravot.am
Question: Do you agree with the further strengthening statements that the role of the CSTO in ensuring the protection and security of Armenia is a mere formality. At the CSTO meeting held recently in Dushanbe, no statement by the leaders of the member States was made and no assessment at the level of the organization was given, in response to the address by the President of Armenia in which he drew everyone’s attention to the worsening of the situation and the shootings on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border (formally including the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, too)?
Answer: I have limited expertise on the subject of the CSTO, so unfortunately I will refrain from answering this question. I am sorry to say but it takes more knowledge than I have on this serious subject. Let me just say that the architecture of the security system in your area demands a bit more effort than was made until now. It will take many times more financial and human resources, and the risks will only increase.
Tatevik Ghazaryan (Armenia)
News.am
Question: Have there been any positive developments in the life of the citizens of Moldova since the signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union?
Answer: I do not want to demonize the Association Agreement, as it is simply a legal document on the relationship between Moldova and the EU. But the signing of this document has certainly brought about a lot of economic problems for the population of our country. The document was signed hastily, unprofessionally and with no public consultations, without explaining what it actually was. The only real advantage to date is enjoyed by Moldovan tourists. As a tourist you can travel without visas in the European Union: this is an established fact. In terms of the rest, in my opinion, the treaty itself (in the form in which it was signed and is operating at the moment) has brought a lot of economic problems.
Emil Babayan (Armenia)
EurAsia Daily
Question: How has the mood of the Moldovan society changed on the issue of European integration and convergence with Brussels in the course of the last 2 – 3 years? Do Moldavians still think that European integration is the guarantee for a bright future or all of it is empty-talk bureaucracy with no real prospects for development?
Answer: Even without the survey, (and its results are very sad for the supporters of the EU), it is clear that the idea is no longer popular in Moldova. It is simply discredited, just like the Moldovan politicians and European officials. In the history of the EU there have never been more incompetent officials than the ones in the recent years. They did all to ensure that in countries like Moldova European integration was associated with anarchy, banditry, and crime. Today, in the best case scenario a quarter of the population would declare that it is for European integration, although I am convinced that most of them do not quite understand what it is. The level of Euroscepticism in Moldova will grow every year, also because those who have had enough of Europe will return, and these people will know exactly what Europe is all about and how it relates to our interests. I'm not demonizing the EU, on the contrary, countries such as Germany, Sweden, and Finland serve as an important reference for me, but every country must work and develop, and not replace it verbiage about European integration, and that is what we have been offered all these years.
Gagik Baghdasaryan (Armenia)
Novosti Armenia News Agency
Question: Mr. Ostalep, do you see any attempts of drawing Moldova into the Ukrainian conflict? How successful can these efforts be and what consequences may they lead to?
Answer: The only risk with the possibility of the involvement of Moldova in some events associated with Ukraine is naturally associated with the Transnistrian problem. During Maidan, the former Prime Minister of Moldova who was impeached by the Parliament for corruption and who taught Ukrainians democracy appeared on the stage in Kiev as a "man of great authority". At this point Moldova’s participation in the Ukrainian events is over. Moldova cannot influence the situation in Ukraine in any form, and any attempt to involve Transnistria in the conflict by force will end with the physical elimination of those who start it.
Gagik Baghdasaryan (Armenia)
Novosti Armenia News Agency
Question: The issue of the unification of Moldova with Romania has already been voiced in the on-line conference. I am interested in whether the Moldovan society agrees to give up sovereignty and national identity for the sake of ending up in the EU space?
Answer: No, it is not ready and does not agree. There are the Moldovan people and the Moldovan state. There is Romania whose expansionist ambitions are not a secret. There is a national Romanian minority in Moldova, which keeps screaming only of the unification with Romania. They are few, but clamorous which is why you often hear them or you can hear about this issue. If they enjoyed something even close to a quarter of the population’s support, they would already have staged a coup. The main part of the Moldovan state wants to live an independent life in a sovereign state. So far without much success because we are not the ones making our own decisions. They are made for us, so far in Brussels. But this is temporary.
The Hetq online newspaper (Armenia)
Question: Mr. Ostalep, what is the situation like in Transnistria and how would you explain the fact that Moldova is not in the focus of Russia’s attention (as you claim) in comparison with other countries of the former Soviet Union. What can radically change this circumstance and inflate Russia’s attention to Moldova?
Answer: The status of Transnistria is the same as it was three years ago or five years ago. Maybe due to the events in Ukraine the situation is tenser, for obvious reasons, and the economic indicators have generally deteriorated. Otherwise, there is no much change. Chisinau politicians are busy looting in the territory under their control, and no one care4s about Transnistria case. Therefore, the so-called negotiation process has a sluggish, formal character and is about nothing. Moscow has enough problems in the international arena to deal with more, and Moldova does not really matter much in terms of its political or economic interests, except in formally cultural and historical terms. Moldova can only benefit from closer relations with Russia, but since it refuses from these relations, Russia has its hands full even without the suicidal policy of Moldova.
Gagik Baghdasaryan (Armenia)
Novosti Armenia News Agency
Question: How important are the economic relations with Russia to Moldova, or have the Moldovan businessmen managed to reorient themselves to the European market?
Answer: The Russian market has traditionally been strategically important for Moldova. Including the labor market. It is natural that Moldovan producers have not been able to refocus onto the western market, it is oversuppli9ed by the goods of its own production and it is unclear how the Moldovan farmers will compete with subsidized agricultural products of the EU, EU loans and so on. This is absurd. Thus, losing the Russian market, in return we got a market where we have no chance. It is very effective, is it not?
Question: How do you see the fate of GUAM as an organization? Does it have any prospects or has exhausted itself?
Answer: The fate of the organization depends on what its members want. As far as I know, this organization has been a kind of a format for consultations on many issues. If there is a need for it now, it will probably continue. I have never exaggerated the role of this organization, although there still is a certain practical interest in it for Moldova.
Armen Minasyan (Armenia)
Panorama.am
Question: What, in your opinion, is the main essence of the protest movement in Moldova?
Answer: The authorities compromised themselves by total corruption. Everyone is unhappy. These protests are not even closely reflecting the real mood in the society- authorities are simply hated. At the moment, there are no real leaders or programs. If there were any, we would have talked about total revolution. “There are few really violent individuals, hence no leaders” (V. Vysotsky). Now those who elected these authorities are protesting: that is the highlight. And they are supported by the West, and it is very unpleasant for the authorities. But the main trouble is already approaching.
Armen Minasyan (Armenia)
Panorama.am
Question: What do you think the main difference and the main similarity between Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict consist in?
Answer: These are two completely different conflicts, in terms of their motives, and they have nothing in common. I can only add that the Transnistrian problem still exists solely because of the stupidity and primitiveness of the Moldovan politicians. This question could have long been resolved, as it only requires a more active involvement of Chisinau and a consideration of the view of the Transnistrian population. There is nothing else in this conflict. Chisinau just has to listen to what the residents of the region want and to draw up the format in which it can be guaranteed to the extent possible. All other issues are legal technicalities. It may sound funny, but Transnistria and Gagauzia continue to be the guarantors of Moldovan statehood, otherwise the right bank would have long been taken away.
Armen Minasyan (Armenia)
Panorama.am
Question: In your opinion will there be an escalation of the frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space?
Answer: The major risk in this regard continues to lie in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I sincerely hope that the politicians involved in this process will be able to prevent any escalation of the conflict or its use in the greater geopolitical struggle, although unfortunately we can see a lot of prerequisites for it. I sincerely hope that the problem can be solved and not abused by someone in major geopolitical intrigues.
Armen Minasyan (Armenia)
Panorama.am
Question: It is no secret that during any confrontation among the major global players it is the mostly small countries that incur losses tending not to get into or not to be involved in global processes. In your opinion, is there an algorithm as to how the small countries should behave in order to possibly avoid losses or minimize them?
Answer: Small countries should possibly make investments in human and intellectual resources. Only competent professionals can formulate a strategy and tactics for their country on what should be done to ensure the solution of the state problems. The reaction to this problem is already a failure. Small states are in need of permanent pre-emptive action to avoid facing the issues you are talking about, and it requires intelligence, knowledge and, accordingly, constant activity in this direction. So the short answer is you need to invest as much as possible in education, science and top professionals.
Armen Minasyan (Armenia)
Panorama.am
Question: What do you think the main drawback of the Eastern Partnership is?
Answer: The main drawback is the lack of thought put into the project. Today, in 2015, it is obvious that its authors in 2008, had no idea of the reality in our regions. The EU was getting ready for the big geopolitical confrontation with Russia, and they needed to hastily put together a format within the framework of which it would be possible to draw to itself a certain number of participants in the struggle against Russia. Naturally they did not succeed in this; the results of the Eastern Partnership are catastrophic. If someone writes down the real sum spent on the Eastern Partnership by the EU, it will immediately become obvious what kind of a scam this program was. The events in Odessa last year that went unnoticed by the EU, the degradation of all economic indicators in the EaP countries, the stolen billion within the "success stories" of Moldova: the list of all the achievements of the EaP can be endlessly continued. Some may say that these issues are not related to the Eastern Partnership, but it would mean a poor understanding of the role played by the EU with its EaP program in our region. Let me just note that in 2008 I was one of the most vocal opponents of this idea and was convincing the EU that it will do a lot of harm at least in Moldova.
Armen Minasyan (Armenia)
Panorama.am
Question: How topical do you think the Commonwealth of Independent States currently is?
Answer: The effectiveness of any organization depends on the objectives and the efforts of its participants. In my opinion, the CIS has never lost either its relevance or its necessity. Another thing is that, in my opinion, most countries constantly expect new major initiatives from Russia and think that supposedly "Russia needs it". With this approach, of course, most of the participants are unlikely to get the efficiency that would wish for themselves. We are all looking for new economic formulas, new markets, and the ability to earn a better living. But this, in my opinion, means the inefficiently used potential of this organization. By the way, in this case the questions and complaints need to be addressed to oneself. The necessary infrastructure has been created; there are all the necessary formats, Secretary General of the CIS S.N. Lebedev, who is a very experienced and competent man, that is why in the absence of significant results, in my view, we can only blame ourselves - for the lack of initiatives and more serious projects. The potential is there, and the results are like us.
Karine Asatryan (Armenia)
A1 + TV Company
Question: Is Moldova bothered by the flow of migrants to Europe and has anything changed in the foreign policy of the country with regards to this situation?
Answer: At the moment, a problem does not directly cause concern among the majority of Moldovans. And very few people understand what is going on in this sense. Especially in the EU. In practice, the Moldovan citizens will be impacted by this inasmuch as encountering the same difficulties as anyone travelling across the German border is currently experiencing – a more thorough and strict control. But in the long run, it is clear that there will be even fewer jobs for EU citizens and migrants, including those from Moldova. Although the issue that you have raised is a very serious one and is tectonic in nature, and it will refer to the majority of us in the future, as it will bring new colors associated with both religion and culture, quality and standard of living into the architecture of Europe.
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